Interview: Indian Immigration in the Time of Trump
What brought Indians to the United States, and what made Indian immigrants, as a whole, so successful once here?
That’s the question Sanjoy Chakravorty, Devesh Kapur, and Nirvikar Singh set out to answer in their The Other One Percent: Indians in America. They track the increase in Indian immigration to America, both after the U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, and again during the (still-ongoing, in some ways) tech boom. They use data and research to show how the Indians who come to America are “triple selected” through India’s socioeconomic hierarchy, highly competitive education system, and the U.S. immigration system. If the one percent of the U.S. population that is Indian has done particularly well, the authors argue, it is perhaps because selection factors were such that the Indian-born population is over three times more educated than the population of the United States.
The book was published shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump’s election, and written before changes to the visa system and increased violence against Indians in America. So Foreign Policy spoke with Chakravorty and Singh to ask how they think the story of the other one percent will change in the time of Trump.
To start with the big picture: Toward the end of the book, you say that it’s still to be seen whether the 2016 election is as big a shift in immigration as the 1965 immigration law or the tech boom. The election’s over, and we’re a month and a bit into Trump’s presidency. What do you think now?
SC: It’s clear that this administration has a pretty distinct view on immigration and immigrant labor. I think there is a pretty large thrust, in a sociological sense, toward creating an Other — a non-white, immigrant population of the U.S. — and marginalizing them. That’s a huge part of the political agenda. And the Other is part of the America First agenda — to kind of cut down on not only foreign workers, but relations with other countries, cutting down on trade. There are plenty of signals that the H-1B visa system is going to be changed. Exactly how is unclear at this point. But it’s very likely to be more restrictive, if not abandoned all together. And it will have pretty significant consequences, not just for immigrants but for the tech industry. I’m sure there are some Indian tech workers who are visibly replacing so-called American workers, but by and large the industry has grown massively in 30 years. And a lot of it through foreign labor. And it raises the question, to me at least, why the American education system, who raised some of the top people — in the middle level [of the tech sector], that labor market really has not been generated in this country. And if there is a squeeze in that labor market, there will be pretty serious consequences.
NS: It’s hard to tell exactly what will happen. The initial signs are not encouraging from what I read. I know we’ve gone through cycles in the past with the H-1B visa program … to me, this comes in the context with Steve Bannon being on record in an interview saying something like, “Oh, there are too many South Asian CEOs in the U.S.” Which seems pretty racist to me. One can be racist without using negative characterizations. Basically I think this is sort of what we point out in our book: there have been eras where the United States adopted a very closed and nativist approach to immigration. It’s possible we’re heading in that direction. At least this administration seems to be very comfortable with that approach. American immigration policy is not just shaped by high-minded ideals, but by domestic politics and geopolitics. It’s kind of a weird situation. I think we’d all gotten used to post-1965 immigration policy, and this administration seems to want to question the fundamentals of that approach. The initial signs to me are not at all encouraging. It’s not just America first — there’s also a racial element to it. That adds a layer of discomfort.
Fast processing of H-1B visas has been suspended, at least for now. Do you think this will change, at least in the short term, Indian immigration to the United States?
SC: Honestly, I’m not sure what that particular tweak is going to do. [Fast processing of H-1B visas] basically gives a leg up to the big firms. They’re able to pay the extra dollars needed to fast track. Normally it’s six to eight weeks, they do it in a couple of weeks. There are plenty of reports that this is biased toward the big firms, and startups are unable to take advantage. I’m honestly not sure what this tweak will mean.
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